Monday, August 6, 2012

A tale of two teams


Without Brig around to make this a fun weekend I ended up spending a lot of time immersed in baseball. I watched 3 Sox games in a row for the first time in probably 2 years and did a lot of tinkering to my 3 fantasy baseball squads. One of them had their trade deadline set for this weekend. Here is it's tale: 

It’s amazing what high expectations and a down year can do to a player’s reputation. With Albert Pujols joining the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (real name) this offseason, fantasy baseball players were salivating over the possibilities for second baseman Howie Kendrick. Batting ahead of Pujols meant he would get better pitches to hit and he’d have more opportunities to score runs. You know what they say about the best laid plans... Pujols struggled in his new locale and so did Kendrick. He was seeing more fastballs but not making contact. His average went down and then so did his spot in the lineup. 

I just traded for Kendrick in my dynasty league. He’s only 29 and normally a .285/10 HR/10 SB hitter. That plays in any league. But here’s the crazy part… how little I paid to get him: a reliever (Vicente Padilla) and an injury-risk starter (Zach Britton). 

That’s a testament to just how far Kendrick’s stock has fallen. At the beginning of the year he was ranked higher than Neil Walker, Dustin Ackley, Jose Altuve and Aaron Hill. Yet, I got him from a manager who has Hill and Ackley (and who previously had Altuve too before trading him) and I got him with the intention of being a backup on my team to Walker. So, clearly, his perceived value has never been lower while his actual value is likely just taking a temporary hit. Sometimes, players have down seasons for absolutely no reason. I’m taking a chance (albeit not much of one given how little I gave up in the trade) that he will rebound next year and continue putting up numbers close to his career averages. And even if he doesn’t, I’m not relying on him to be a starter or anything other than a replacement player if someone gets hurt or is slumping. It’s a no-lose situation. 

Earlier in the year, I turned Sergio Romo (another reliever who isn't his team's closer) into Ivan Nova (just win, baby!) as well as trading one year wonder(?) Fernando Rodney for much needed right-field help in the form of Corey Hart. The common denominator between all these trades? I moved relievers. 

This would be nearly impossible in any league that didn’t count Holds as a category. Rodney is a save-machine this year so he has value anywhere but Romo and Padilla? Not necessarily. Romo is actually a very good pitcher but he’s had arm issues so San Fran is treating him with kid gloves. Smart in real life maybe but under-utilizing a proven talent in fantasy is a waste. And Padilla has looked really good this year but he’s in the twilight of his career and will be a free agent after the season meaning who knows what his situation will be next year. The key point here is to not pay for relievers. There is too much turnover from year-to-year. There’s only 1 Mariano Rivera (and even this year he screwed over fantasy owners).

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