Showing posts with label fantasy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy. Show all posts

Monday, August 6, 2012

A tale of two teams


Without Brig around to make this a fun weekend I ended up spending a lot of time immersed in baseball. I watched 3 Sox games in a row for the first time in probably 2 years and did a lot of tinkering to my 3 fantasy baseball squads. One of them had their trade deadline set for this weekend. Here is it's tale: 

It’s amazing what high expectations and a down year can do to a player’s reputation. With Albert Pujols joining the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (real name) this offseason, fantasy baseball players were salivating over the possibilities for second baseman Howie Kendrick. Batting ahead of Pujols meant he would get better pitches to hit and he’d have more opportunities to score runs. You know what they say about the best laid plans... Pujols struggled in his new locale and so did Kendrick. He was seeing more fastballs but not making contact. His average went down and then so did his spot in the lineup. 

I just traded for Kendrick in my dynasty league. He’s only 29 and normally a .285/10 HR/10 SB hitter. That plays in any league. But here’s the crazy part… how little I paid to get him: a reliever (Vicente Padilla) and an injury-risk starter (Zach Britton). 

That’s a testament to just how far Kendrick’s stock has fallen. At the beginning of the year he was ranked higher than Neil Walker, Dustin Ackley, Jose Altuve and Aaron Hill. Yet, I got him from a manager who has Hill and Ackley (and who previously had Altuve too before trading him) and I got him with the intention of being a backup on my team to Walker. So, clearly, his perceived value has never been lower while his actual value is likely just taking a temporary hit. Sometimes, players have down seasons for absolutely no reason. I’m taking a chance (albeit not much of one given how little I gave up in the trade) that he will rebound next year and continue putting up numbers close to his career averages. And even if he doesn’t, I’m not relying on him to be a starter or anything other than a replacement player if someone gets hurt or is slumping. It’s a no-lose situation. 

Earlier in the year, I turned Sergio Romo (another reliever who isn't his team's closer) into Ivan Nova (just win, baby!) as well as trading one year wonder(?) Fernando Rodney for much needed right-field help in the form of Corey Hart. The common denominator between all these trades? I moved relievers. 

This would be nearly impossible in any league that didn’t count Holds as a category. Rodney is a save-machine this year so he has value anywhere but Romo and Padilla? Not necessarily. Romo is actually a very good pitcher but he’s had arm issues so San Fran is treating him with kid gloves. Smart in real life maybe but under-utilizing a proven talent in fantasy is a waste. And Padilla has looked really good this year but he’s in the twilight of his career and will be a free agent after the season meaning who knows what his situation will be next year. The key point here is to not pay for relievers. There is too much turnover from year-to-year. There’s only 1 Mariano Rivera (and even this year he screwed over fantasy owners).

Thursday, February 9, 2012

I'm a balla, baby

I am in the weirdest fantasy basketball league. Normally, I’m in 2 leagues a year but I’ve been trying to stop completely. I just don’t pay it as much attention as I did in college. Unlike fantasy football and baseball -- which I still make time for -- I usually show up for the basketball draft and then never look at my team again. So I was extremely close to going cold turkey this year. But my girlfriend’s friend was looking for another player so I joined. (I really had to resist the urge to join a second league that I was invited to as well. It would have been the same cycle all over again.)

I looked at the league categories and positions and it seemed pretty standard. Easy enough. What I didn’t even realize until one of my colleagues pointed it out a week or two into the season is that it isn’t a normal scoring league. It isn’t head-to-head or even rotisserie. It’s a combination of the two which is practically unheard of. It takes all your points for the week, regardless of category, and if your team has more than your opponent overall then you win the week. That changes everything! I need to go heavy on guards who score more and don’t even have to worry about extra centers because it doesn’t matter what stats they get (blocks, rebounds) as long as overall they are getting a lot of points.

I actually feel kind of cheated because this is such a weird situation. I’ve never been in anything like this and it really takes all the thought out of the game and having to choose between a guy who get you 3’s and a guy who gets you steals. Since the categories don’t matter at all it really is a basic, basic league. So of course now I need to back all this talk up and win the damn thing. See you in April.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Mound Pounders

This is for you. No, no, it’s not something you actually care about. I just feel bad that January became a book/movie review-fest and not much else. So here’s something different that still won’t interest you.

I am in a dynasty fantasy baseball league with some of my friends. There are 20 teams and each team has 25 active roster spots and 5 DL spots for injured players. We also have 5 minor league slots and a separate minor league draft but I won’t bore you with that. If you don’t know, a dynasty league is different from a normal fantasy baseball league because we keep the same players year after year. We draft one time and our teams carry over. It’s like the real life Red Sox. Ben Cherington became the GM this year and he has the players he has. He’ll make some trades or signings but next year he’ll have those same players. Dynasty is based off the same principle.

We started in 2010 and I had the ninth pick in the draft. I wanted to go pitching first because I always end up waiting and piecing together my staff. I did not want that to happen in the dynasty league. I took 2x Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. Only one other pitcher went in the first round (Felix Hernandez). In the second round I went to a scarce position (2B) and picked the best player, Robinson Cano. I had a choice between Cano and Pedroia which was tough because I love Pedey in real life but in fantasy Cano is the (slightly) better option. In the third round I got nervous about the lack of quality 1B left so I grabbed Billy Butler. He doesn’t have much power but he is an asset in a league that counts OBP (On-Base Percentage) like this one. Moving along the diamond I wanted to take a 3B in the next round. I was iffy on Gordon Beckham or Ian Stewart. I went with Beckham, only to find out that the White Sox were moving him to 2B. Complete waste of a pick (although it would later pay off in a trade). Luckily, Stewart made it back to me (I had to sweat through 20 picks by other people) and I grabbed him with my next pick. In the 6th round I wanted to get a SS and I chose Ian Desmond over Erick Aybar. I still regret this choice. At the time, I thought Aybar had peaked the year earlier and I heard reports stating that Desmond could be a 20/20 guy. He got the 20 steals last year but I’m still waiting for some pop in his bat. At this point in the draft I have no outfielders so I added the power hitting Jason Kubel. I had owned him before and considered him a pretty consistent 25 homers. In round 8 I reached for another outfielder, Michael Brantley. In the draft guide I was using it didn’t rank players dynasty-style (valuing youth and potential) so I wasn’t sure where to take him. I feel this was a little early. In the ninth round I couldn’t believe that David Price (former #1 overall draft pick) was still available. I grabbed him and didn’t think twice. Round 10 I went back to the young outfielders with Travis Snider. Round 11 was another young, Tampa Bay pitcher, Wade Davis. His strikeout numbers have yet to follow him to my team. Cameron Maybin was next… a former prospect whose shine had come off a bit. I picked J.A. Happ next because he was a former rookie of the year and had looked good in his short career. Back to the OF for Gerardo Parra, who hasn’t bloomed yet although he’s shown ability. He’s a player I see now on the waiver wire and always want to give another shot. I finally gave in and selected a closer in round 15 – the Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin. I never like to overrate saves. At this point I have a starter at every position except Catcher. Come on down, Carlos Ruiz! I like him because he’s in the stacked Phillies lineup. Next I choose a reliever JP Howell. An interesting choice because he is not a closer, but he is young and has high strikeout totals. Unfortunately, he’s been hurt and hasn’t amounted to much. I wanted some consistency on my pitching staff so I drafted Nick Blackburn. For 3 straight years he had 10-11 wins with an ERA in the low 4.’s. Round 19 I selected OF Marlon Byrd. Marc Rzepczynski is the pitcher I took with my 20th pick. Round 21 I went with another young pitcher, Wade LeBlanc. He pitches in San Diego which is one of the best pitchers’ parks in the league. I chose another non-closing reliever, Mark Lowe with pick 22. Next up was infield prospect Jason Donald. He was one of the prospects the Phillies sent to the Indians in the Cliff Lee trade. In round 24 I selected Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo who was quite green but a definite source of homers. The final round was upon me and, after choosing prospects with my last 2 picks, I selected an unsexy, unexciting, uninspiring player named Casey Kotchman. Ladies and gentlemen, your inaugural Mound Pounders.

My very first move after the draft – which will go down in history – was picking up Jose Bautista off the waiver wire. He went on to have a breakout season and became a superstar for the Blue Jays. My other big move was trading Gordon Beckham (who was stuck on my bench) for Ricky Romero, an up and coming pitcher whom I was a big fan of. Here is how my team looked at the end of that first season:

C: Ruiz, Ryan Hanigan
1B: Butler
2B: Cano, Donald
SS: Desmond, Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Bautista, Stewart
OF: Kubel, Brantley, Maybin, Snider, Byrd, Andres Torres
SP: Lincecum, Price, Romero, Davis, Happ, Blackburn, LeBlanc, Brian Duensing
RP: Franklin, Joaquin Benoit, Jason Motte (26)

As you can see I ended the season over the allowable 25 players. Since we have those 5 DL spots, we can “stash” additional injured players at the end of the season. We can hold onto them until February when we have to officially get down to 25. This is a good strategy to buy yourself a few extra months to see who is recovering well and allows a more informed decision in February rather than having to in September.

During the season I obviously made many transactions. I wanted to add a backup catcher and ended up with Hanigan. The same can be said for SS where I grabbed Betancourt. Andres Torres was a great pickup for me because he helped a lot in the steals category. And as you can see, I picked up two other relievers to go along with my draftee, Franklin. Always be reactive and not proactive with relief pitchers.

Year 2 of the dynasty league was very exciting. I was able to pick up some veteran difference makers to help my team now. My goal in last year’s draft was to find young talent with high upside. I want to be good for a long time. Of course working within that strategy usually implies that you’re ignoring the present and waiting for the prospects to blossom. This year I was able to get solid HR contributors like Derrek Lee and Garrett Jones to help my offense, as well as Paul Maholm to boost my starting pitching.

As I already mentioned, I’m not one to overrate saves. The flip side is you never want to ignore them either. My relief corps is 100% changed from last year. In hindsight, dropping Jason Motte was a bad move but he didn’t win the closer role until August – many months after I dropped him. But I was able to pick up Sergio Santos and Javy Guerra who both came out of the woodwork to lead their respective teams in saves. If you play it like I do then you really need to keep a hawkeye on the waiver wire.

I got a stay of execution this year when Jose Bautista managed to reclaim his 3B eligibility. He plays RF now but due to an injury he got enough time at 3B for me to be allowed to play him in that spot. My problem was that Ian Stewart was the only other 3B on my roster and he had the worst year of his career this year. So bad, in fact, that he was traded in the offseason. Knowing this was a weakness on my roster I picked up a couple kids before the season ended to see if they might stick. Brent Morel is probably the best bet to be my 3B of the future. Kyle Seager gained SS eligibility at the end of the season too so I can use him to back up Ian Desmond, which was another glaring hole on my roster. But because of my late season moves it allowed me the opportunity to try and trade the disappointing Ian Stewart. The thing is he had a great season a couple years ago with 25 home runs. Now he’s getting a fresh start with another team so I knew someone would be willing to take a chance. And when approached, I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to trade for my old draft pick, Dayan Viciedo. I dropped him early in 2010 because he was still a couple years away from the pros and I didn’t have the roster flexibility to keep him on my bench. But in this past year he has blossomed and looks to be a star in the making. I’ll take the future star over the reclamation project every day of the week. Of course, my trade partner took note of this and also requested Wade Davis for Carl Pavano. Davis is young and Pavano is quite old but I’m not a huge fan of Davis. He’s never put up big strikeout numbers and if he didn’t play for Tampa Bay then he’d just be average. So while Pavano is still a bit of a downgrade, the swap of Stewart for Viciedo more than makes up for it.

C: Ruiz, Nick Hundley
1B: Butler, Lee, Jones
2B: Cano
SS: Desmond
3B: Bautista, Morel, Seager
OF: Kubel, Brantley, Maybin, Snider, Byrd, Viciedo, Chris Carter
SP: Lincecum, Price, Romero, Happ, Blackburn, Maholm, Pavano, Kevin Correia, Jon Garland
RP: Santos, Guerra, Greg Holland, Felix Doubront (30)

*2010 – finished 17th
*2011 – finished 11th
*2012 - ???